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Populations declining toward extinction can persist via genetic adaptation in a process called evolutionary rescue. Predicting evolutionary rescue has applications ranging from conservation biology to medicine, but requires understanding and integrating the multiple effects of a stressful environmental change on population processes. Here we derive a simple expression for how generation time, a key determinant of the rate of evolution, varies with population size during evolutionary rescue. Change in generation time is quantitatively predicted by comparing how intraspecific competition and the source of maladaptation each affect the rates of births and deaths in the population. Depending on the difference between two parameters quantifying these effects, the model predicts that populations may experience substantial changes in their rate of adaptation in both positive and negative directions, or adapt consistently despite severe stress. These predictions were then tested by comparison to the results of individual-based simulations of evolutionary rescue, which validated that the tolerable rate of environmental change varied considerably as described by analytical results. We discuss how these results inform efforts to understand wildlife disease and adaptation to climate change, evolution in managed populations and treatment resistance in pathogens. 

Abstract Phenotypic plasticity is one way for organisms to deal with variable environments through generalism. However, plasticity is not found universally and its evolution may be constrained by costs and other limitations such as complexity: the need for multiple mutational steps before the adaptation is realized. Theory predicts that greater experienced heterogeneity, such as organisms may encounter when spatial heterogeneity is fine-grained relative to dispersal, should favor the evolution of a broader niche. Here we tested this prediction via simulation. We found that, contrary to classical predictions, coarse-grained landscapes can be the most favorable for the evolution of plasticity, but only when populations encounter those landscapes through range expansion. During these range expansions, coarse-grained landscapes select for each step in the complex mutational pathway to plastic generalism by blocking the dispersal of specialists. These circumstances provide ecological opportunities for innovative mutations that change the niche. Our results indicate a new mechanism by which range expansion and spatially structured landscapes interact to shape evolution and reveal that the environments in which a complex adaptation has the highest fitness may not be the most favorable for its evolution. 

Abstract Adaptive plasticity is expected to evolve when informative cues predict environmental variation. However, plastic responses can be maladaptive even when those cues are informative, if prediction mistakes are shared across members of a generation. These fitness costs can constrain the evolution of plasticity when initial plastic mutants use of cues of only moderate reliability. Here, we model the barriers to the evolution of plasticity produced by these constraints and show that dispersal across a metapopulation can overcome them. Constraints are also lessened, though not eliminated, when plastic responses are free to evolve gradually and in concert with increased reliability. Each of these factors be viewed as a form of bet-hedging: by lessening correlations in the fates of relatives, dispersal acts as diversifying bet-hedging, while producing submaximal responses to a cue can be understood as a conservative bet-hedging strategy. While poor information may constrain the evolution of plasticity, the opportunity for bet-hedging may predict when that constraint can be overcome. Abstract Populations may make bad predictions when when using partially reliable cues to track changing environments (left). These mistakes can render plasticity deleterious (s < 0); right) when cue reliability is low, but dispersal among demes spreads out the effects of mistakes and allows the evolution of adaptive plasticity. 

Abstract Understanding the evolution of novel physiological traits is highly relevant for expanding the characterization and manipulation of biological systems. Acquisition of new traits can be achieved through horizontal gene transfer (HGT). Here, we investigate drivers that promote or deter the maintenance of HGT-driven degeneracy, occurring when processes accomplish identical functions through nonidentical components. Subsequent evolution can optimize newly acquired functions; for example, beneficial alleles identified in an engineered Methylorubrum extorquens strain allowed it to utilize a “Foreign” formaldehyde oxidation pathway substituted for its Native pathway for methylotrophic growth. We examined the fitness consequences of interactions between these alleles when they were combined with the Native pathway or both (Dual) pathways. Unlike the Foreign pathway context where they evolved, these alleles were often neutral or deleterious when moved into these alternative genetic backgrounds. However, there were instances where combinations of multiple alleles resulted in higher fitness outcomes than individual allelic substitutions could provide. Importantly, the genetic context accompanying these allelic substitutions significantly altered the fitness landscape, shifting local fitness peaks and restricting the set of accessible evolutionary trajectories. These findings highlight how genetic context can negatively impact the probability of maintaining native and HGT-introduced functions together, making it difficult for degeneracy to evolve. However, in cases where the cost of maintaining degeneracy was mitigated by adding evolved alleles impacting the function of these pathways, we observed rare opportunities for pathway coevolution to occur. Together, our results highlight the importance of genetic context and resulting epistasis in retaining or losing HGT-acquired degenerate functions.